EARTH'S CAPACITY

Evening Post, Volume CVIII, Issue 150, 21 December 1929, Page 31

EARTH'S CAPACITY

PUT AT TWELVE THOUSAND

MILLION

INCREASE OF SLAV PEOPLES

Mankind probably will require at least 150 years to double the world's present estimated population, which -is between 1,700,000,000 and 1,900,000,-. 000, if fertility ana mortality remain as at present. A mere doubling of the world's population, however, will produce a striking change, the race composition, wi J\ a greatly increased percentage of Slavs. The populations of North America, Western and Northern Europe, and Australia even now are no longer reproducing themselves. Such were the conclusions presented to the sixth annual Institute, of the Harris Memorial Foundation recently in Maudel Hall of the University of Chicago, which conducts the institute, by Eobert E. Kuezinski, council member of the Institute of Economics, Washington, and professor of economics in the Berlin Handelschochschule. LIMIT OF TWELVE BILLIONS. "The best estimate as to the increase in the world's population is that the present rate is about five-eighths of 1 per cent, a year," said Professor Kuezinski. "If this rate were to persist there would be a doubling -of population in 110 years. At present the total of

human beings on the face of the globe is somewhere between 1,700,000,000 and 1,900,000,000. • But the earth's capacity is limited'-by the; potential agricultural resources, and, assuming that there are 15,000,000,000 acres of arable land ana that fifteen acres on an average are sufficient to support an individual, the maximum population would not have to be placed at less than 1,000,000,000. "Even allowing'-for all conceivable advances in science and technique and assuming that all human effort be directed to the maintenance of a maximum number of people, it seems impossible that the earth might - sustain more than six times its. present "population, or about 12,000,000,000 people-' <fFurther, the population limit is restricted also by the peculiarities of the human character, which may find its expression in what we may briefly call ?A^ onal eg°isms- The maximum of 10,000,000,000 or 11,000,000,000 can of course, be attained only .with the freest possible migration. -The United States as all other countries,, would have to open the gates to. all nations of the world; she would have to accept her due share of the 10,000,000,000 or 11 - 000,000,000, say 800,000,000. She would have to forget everything about the national origins clause; she would have to welcome 100,000,000- or more immigrants without the slightest discrimination on account of colour, race, or standard of living. SEES THREAT OF WAS, "If, on. the ether hand, the people of the United States and .of some other countries, which are : comparatively underpopulated, go on :.restricting" immigration as they do, it is hard to;see' how the earth—even allowing for every

conceivable advance in science and technique—could possibly double its present population. , "The world's population cannot for a long time grow at the same rate as it seems to have grown from 1920 to 192 G. If the increase does not slow down the inhabitants of the overcrowded countries in a near future will have to claim the right of occupation, of the less densely settled territories, and, if the people of-these'territories resist and try to maintain their immigration restrictions, war becomes unavoidable. . ~ •> Besjdte. insufficient data as U birth. rates,: population,- and age gronps for the world, there exists a basis to predict a slowing down of the-rate increase, according to Professor Kuczinski. A study completed by the Institute of Economics of the Brockinca Institution, in Washington, covering fcrreat Britain and Ireland, France, Belgium, Holland, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Norway,' Sweden; and.Fin- . land, which has 10 to 11 per cent, of Srt-f-f 8 PoP«^tion, iuclicated that fertility is already so low that not only does the population no longer reproduce itself, but has a virtual deficit of about 7 per cent. ■